Damir Stručić (Croatian Defence Academy “Dr. Franjo Tuđman”, Zagreb, Croatia)
International Leadership Journal · July 2026 · Published by COTRUGLI Business School, Zagreb
Abstract
Organizations operating in volatile environments increasingly fail not because they lack strategic intent, but because their decision processes degrade under pressure into narrative contests, escalation loops, approval bottlenecks, and post-hoc rationalization. This article introduces Vanguard Intelligence Systems (VIS), an AI-augmented decision framework developed at COTRUGLI Business School, designed to convert uncertainty into aligned action for high-stakes market entry and operations decisions. VIS integrates explicit decision governance, competing-hypothesis analysis using falsification logic (least disproved option), rigorous evidence provenance standards, operational uncertainty management through measurable tripwires (kill indicators) linked to predefined actions, and embedded artificial intelligence through a multi-agent system that augments each phase of the decision cycle. The method culminates in a one-page Decision Brief and a 90-day execution loop with after-action review. VIS is positioned as a leadership operating system for the NEO era (Networked, Exponential, Orchestrated). The framework has been validated through a 12-month pilot program with over 50 users across both defense/security and commercial decision domains.
Keywords: decision discipline; leadership operating systems; evidence provenance; uncertainty management; falsification logic; distributed execution; AI-augmented decisions; human-AI teaming